Letter From America
Things are looking up for Barack Obama
WHAT a difference four weeks makes! After the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, riding on the wave of Sarah Palin-mania, John McCain overtook Barack Obama for the first time in the national polls.
Then catastrophe hit Wall Street. First, the government had to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Then Lehman Brothers went under. In quick succession, insurance giant AIG had to be rescued with an $85 billion bailout. With the economy tottering on the brink of recession/depression, the treasury secretary prophesied that without infusion of an additional $700 billion into the economy the credit market would collapse.
John McCain is on record as saying several times that the economy was not his strong suit. He proved it by callously repeating that the US "economy's fundamentals are sound." It was precisely at that moment that "out of touch" McCain started sinking in the polls. To arrest the freefall, McCain "suspended" his campaign (although his ads kept on running on TV and his surrogates kept on attacking Obama), and descended on Washington to aid in the rescue plan.
McCain unsuccessfully attempted to postpone the first presidential debate on September 26, and then declared that he would not show up. Under Republican pressure, McCain did show up because Obama said he would. The first debate was on national security and foreign affairs, supposedly McCain's strengths. Nevertheless, McCain came across as too condescending ("Senator Obama does not understand."), and never looked at Obama.
The first debate is the critical one. Voters get a chance to size up the two candidates. Obama was steady as a rock, in complete command of facts and quick with retorts. McCain came across as a cat on a hot tin roof, dissing, mocking and attacking Obama incessantly. Viewers did not like that. Even Republicans admitted that Obama looked more presidential than McCain. All the after-debate polls showed Obama winning the debate by about 15%.
Although McCain had staked so much on the rescue/bailout billing passing, the House of Representatives voted down the legislation on September 29, with a majority of Republicans voting against it. The Dow Jones Industrial plunged 777 in response. The Bill was finally passed on October 3, but by this time McCain was taking a back seat. Conservatives did not like the government bailout; they called it socialism.
In the meantime, Sarah Palin was doing her thing. In two interviews with the media she came across as clueless about not only world affairs but also about domestic affairs. She could not name the newspapers she read, or a Supreme Court decision, other than Roe v Wade, (legalising abortion in 1973) she disagreed with.
Several conservative commentators -- George Will, Charles Krauthammer, David Brooks, Kathleen Parker -- pronounced Palin unfit to be vice-president, let alone president. Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, among others, asked Palin to step down for the sake of her country.
Of course, Palin would entertain no such thoughts. She can smell blood. She really believes that if cancer-survivor John McCain died in office, she would be the president. Qualifications? Who needs qualifications?
That is how Sarah Palin approached her debate with the Democratic vice-presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden on October 2. Smiling, winking, a bubbly Sarah Palin parroted what her handlers drilled into her head. Behind the veneer, there was little substance.
The format the Republicans had worked out made it more of a speech-making contest than a debate. Biden could not ask Palin any question. And Palin even declared that she would not answer the moderator's questions; instead she would address "the American people."
Palin did not answer many of the questions asked by the moderator, perhaps because she did not understand them, or perhaps she wanted to make sure she articulated all her talking points regardless of the question. It is mind boggling that a woman of such limited intelligence, skill and capacity could be the US president at such a perilous time.
The contrast with Biden could not have been starker. Biden was statesmanlike, in command of facts and reassuring. The American people agreed. In every post-debate poll, Biden won the debate by around 15%.
Whenever the economy tanks, the voters blame the party in power. From a two-point lead about four weeks ago, McCain has now fallen seven-points behind Obama in the polls. McCain is slightly behind even in Red States that Bush won in 2004 -- Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina.
Iowa and New Mexico, two states that Bush won, are now solidly in Obama's column. If the elections were held today, Obama could be winning 353 electoral votes. 270 are needed to win.
Of course, the election is not going to be held today. It is four-weeks away, on November 4. As the late British prime minister Harold Wilson used to say: "A week is a long time in politics."
According to The New York Times, the McCain campaign has decided to go after Obama in the remaining days in an attempt to paint him as too unknown, too untested, too inexperienced and too dangerous to be handed over the reigns of the US government.
Once again, they want to make Barack Obama, not the economy, the issue on which the election ought to be decided. How the American voters and the Obama campaign respond to the McCain campaign's attempt will determine the outcome of the 2008 US presidential election.
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