The Praful Bidwai Column
Reciprocate Zardari's overture
IT'S not often that run-of-the-mill politicians rise above petty self-interest, and even more rare that they articulate grand ideas and visions. But when they do make worthy proposals, these must be heartily welcomed -- no matter what their motives.
It's to this category that President Asif Ali Zardari's recent interview to the Wall Street Journal belongs. He has done what no other Pakistani ruler has mustered the courage to do. He has declared that India is no longer Pakistan's arch-enemy. Indeed: "India has never been a threat to Pakistan."
A majority in the Pakistani establishment, including supporters of the peace process with India, will reject this proposition. Like many in the Indian establishment who view Pakistan through a prism of adversity, they see India in inimical terms.
For many, systemic hostility towards India is part of Pakistan's self-identity and its reason for existence.
Mr. Zardari's is an extraordinary statement -- not so much because it represents the strategic reality or an accurate political assessment, but because it shows an intent to terminate Pakistan's six decades-long strategic hostility with India.
Mr. Zardari has called Kashmir's militant separatists "terrorists." (The "terrorist" description has since been retracted by Sherry Rehman, but the rest of the statement stands.)
He also says he has no objection to India's nuclear deal with the US -- with the routine rider that Pakistan must enjoy parity: "Why should we begrudge the largest democracy in the world getting friendly with one of the oldest democracies …?"
"Largest democracy" isn't a description of India many Pakistanis are comfortable with.
More, Mr. Zardari hinges Pakistan's "economic survival" upon economic ties with India: there's no other strategy "for nations like us."
Relations with India would be the key to Pakistan's prosperity. Its cement factories would cater to India's infrastructure needs, its textile mills would feed India's demand, and Pakistani ports would help India relieve congestion at its own ports.
Few Pakistani analysts have gone this far in acknowledging India's emergence as a major economic power, vis-à-vis that Pakistan would play a naturally asymmetrical role.
What motivated Mr. Zardari to say all this? He couldn't been enthused solely by his meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh or by his anxiety to obtain a $100 billion infusion into Pakistan's economy, for which he needs to appear friendly to India.
Mr. Zardari's "Mr. Ten Percent" reputation apart, he and Benazir Bhutto cut shady US-brokered deals with former President Pervez Musharraf to get amnesty from criminal charges.
Worse, his recent election as president with the power to make crucial appointments and dismiss elected governments/legislatures weakens parliamentary democracy.
Can Mr. Zardari be trusted? He has comprehensively reneged on the Murree Declaration. It's hard to argue that his vision of a non-adversarial relationship with India is shared by the military.
Yet, beyond a point, these questions are irrelevant. What matter is that Pakistan's elected president stuck his neck out by making this overture at a make-or-break juncture in Pakistan's history.
However obliquely, this reflects two views that have gained currency in Pakistan, as I noted through a recent visit and discussions with analysts.
First, there's pervasive support for the peace process with India. Pakistan cannot afford tensions along its Eastern border when its Western border is burning under the combined impact of a pro-Taliban insurgency and the US-led war in Afghanistan.
Second, perceptive Pakistanis believe their country has a great stake in intensified relations with growing economic power India. Official trade between them has doubled over two years and there's boundless scope for growth.
One vehicle for growth is the recent agreement to resume overland trade across the Punjab and Sindh borders, which will reintegrate these regions.
Pakistan today faces its greatest existential crisis since 1947 -- far graver than the separation of Bangladesh. Every institution of governance is in decay. Political instability has been aggravated by its shaky ruling coalition.
The economy is in dire straits, with inflation at 25%, the rupee below a historic Rs.78 to the dollar, slumping growth, and not enough foreign exchange reserves to pay for two months' imports.
Meanwhile, insurgencies are flourishing in the North-West Frontier Province, the tribal areas and in Baluchistan, and separatism is growing in Sindh.
The horrible prospect of Pakistan becoming "a nuclearised Yugoslavia in the making" can no longer be dismissed as a fantasy.
The US bears a huge responsibility for the crisis -- not least because it has conducted the war in Afghanistan primarily as a hunt for al-Qaeda, not to stabilise and reconstruct that devastated country. Its lethal strikes across the border have bred unprecedented resentment to a point where "positive" or "mixed" feelings towards al-Qaeda (22%) outweigh "negative" feelings (19%), say polls.
The US myopically backed Gen. Musharraf till the very end, and imposed bad political deals upon Pakistan, thus undermining its organic democratisation.
India must reciprocate Mr. Zardari's overture by giving a determined push to the peace process. India has nothing to lose by pursuing a serious dialogue on Mr. Zardari's ideas and building a climate for reconciliation, and reaching out to a wider audience in both countries.
If India could talk to Gen Musharraf, there's an even stronger reason why it should reciprocate Mr. Zardari's overture.
On the other hand, India has a huge amount to gain if talks on the Zardari proposals defuse, and eventually end, its rivalry with Pakistan. Indeed, South Asia's very future hinges on such a breakthrough.
India can best help Pakistan if it builds a relationship with it independent of the US, and weans Pakistan away from dependence on Washington. Equally, India should reassure Islamabad by thinning out troops in the Kashmir Valley.
India should offer Pakistan generous security cooperation and joint projects in Afghanistan and provide essential supplies, including petroleum products.
Besides joining the newly formed "Friends of Pakistan" group, India should unilaterally allow duty-free imports of all goods from Pakistan. The Indian economy can easily bear this. Nothing could better help rebuild mutual relations.
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