Letter From America
Obama is winning the debates, but the polls remain close
BY all account, Barack Obama won the third and final presidential debate against John McCain on October 15 handily. Yet, the polls continue to show a tight race.
McCain needed a "game changer" to reverse the momentum that has been building up in Obama's favour ever since McCain pronounced that the "fundamentals of the economy are strong" a month ago.
Since then, there has been a worldwide financial meltdown, several US financial institutions have collapsed, the banking system needed an infusion of $700 billion and the stock market crashed -- 20% in one week alone. The American people held the party in the White House and the Republicans responsible for their misery. Since then, Obama's stock (no pun intended) has been sky-rocketing and McCain's plummeting.
The focus of the McCain campaign has been to sow doubts about Obama's fitness for the presidency by attacking him tangentially -- over his association with a 1960s radical, his "foreign" roots, "Muslim" name and his otherness ("he is not one of us.")
By stoking fires of hatred, the McCain campaign succeeded in eliciting dangerous vitriol from some elements of the crowd in their rallies. Shouts of "traitor," "terrorist," "off with his head," and "kill him" were heard at McCain/Palin rallies, which have become hate-fests. Under severe criticism from the media, the McCain campaign has reluctantly toned down the rhetoric temporarily.
The third and last debate offered 90-minute free commercial for both the candidates. McCain came out swinging, and for the first 30-minutes succeeded in putting Obama on the defensive. Obama's was the classic rope-a-dope strategy made famous by Muhammad Ali in his heavyweight boxing championship fight in Kinshasa, Zaire in 1974. Ali, leaning against the ropes took Foreman's best punches, and when Foreman ran out of gas punching, Ali knocked him out. After parrying McCain's initial barrage, Obama counter-punched and won going away.
When McCain brought up Obama's association 1960s radical William Ayers, Obama acknowledged their passing acquaintance, but pivoted the question around and went on to name his real political associates: billionaire investor Warren Buffet on economics, Joe Biden and Republican senator Dick Lugar on foreign policy, and former Fed chairman Paul Volcker on Wall Street. So much for bad associates.
The problem for McCain in the debate was his body language and reaction shots. Under attack by McCain, Obama would flash his disarming, film-star smile. Attacked by Obama, McCain did an impersonation of Inspector Jacques Clouseau by grimacing, rolling his eyes and presenting an overly animated face! Every after-debate poll showed Obama winning by a margin of 2 to 1. 80% of the respondents thought McCain attacked Obama persistently; only 7% thought Obama did so. After the debate, Obama's favourability went up to 64%; McCain's decreased to 50%.
The more Americans see Obama, the more they like him, are reassured, and think he can be president. With 20% more Americans thinking that Obama will do a better job on the economy than McCain, the only chance the McCain campaign sees of turning things around is by demonising Obama. In key swing states, the McCain campaign is making automatic phone calls to voters accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists, such as Bill Ayers."
The McCain campaign believes that the undecided voters are undecided because they have reservations about Obama. The smear tactics are meant to feed into their prejudice and wean them away from Obama towards John McCain.
That the McCain campaign keeps on going that route suggest that it must be working to some extent. Although a recent New York Times/CBS poll showed Obama ahead by 14 points, a Gallup tracking poll released on October 16, showed Obama ahead by only 2 points. The average of all polls had Obama ahead by 7% last week; this week it is 6%. Therefore, any talk of a Obama landslide is premature. Obama cautioned his supporters on October 16 not to be cocky, reminding them that although the polls had him ahead by 10 points in the New Hampshire primary in February, Hillary Clinton beat him by 4%.
Then there is the question of the "Bradley Effect" which refers to the gubernatorial defeat of African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, in 1982, when election eve polls had him winning by double-digits.
A new generation of Americans has come of age since 1982; they are far less prejudiced than their fathers and grandfathers. And they are Obama's staunch supporters. Although the young are more liberal-minded, they are also notorious non-voters on election day. Obama campaign thinks that things will be different this time around because the young are not only Democrats, they are Obama-Democrats. They turned out in huge number for Obama during the primaries.
A lot can happen in two and a half weeks. It is worth remembering that a month ago, before the financial crises overtook the McCain campaign, McCain was actually leading Obama by 2-4%.
John McCain is desperately trying to find a message that resonates with the Americans voters. His "experience" has not helped; experience belongs in the past and the election is all about the future. Because of his accomplishments in the military and civilian fields, McCain believes he is a far superior candidate. However, the voters see it as a contest between two equals. It is a race where the starting line is the same for both the candidates; despite his achievements, McCain does not start 30 yards ahead of Obama in the 100-metre race.
The worry for Obama campaign is the fear of a catastrophic domestic or international event in the next few days that rivets Americans attention to John McCain's strengths in national security and foreign affairs. The gift of "October Surprise" came in early, in September, for Barack Obama this election year. Obama hopes that there are no more surprises until November 4.
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