Letter From America
Looking like a Barack Obama landslide
BARRING some unforeseen catastrophic events, or the American voters changing their mind en masse unprecedentally at the last minute, Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States on November 4. Every which way one looks, the math is too daunting, the climb too steep for John McCain. McCain is too far behind, with too little time left to catch up.
America elects its president indirectly, through the Electoral College votes. There are 538 Electoral College votes. The total number of Electoral College votes nationwide equals the number of US congressmen (435) and US senators (100), plus 3 for the District of Columbia which hosts the nation's capital and has one congressman but no senator.
For a state, the number of Electoral College votes equals the number of congressmen from the state plus its two senators. California, the most populous state, has 55 Electoral College votes (53 congressmen and 2 senators.) Several states, such as Delaware and Alaska (the states of the two VP candidates) have only 3. Except for Nebraska and Maine, where Electoral College votes are apportioned according to popular votes won by the candidates, in the remaining 48 states winner takes all. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency.
Although in the poll of polls Obama is ahead of McCain nationally by about 6%, he is significantly ahead in several swing states. In 2004, George Bush won 286 Electoral College votes to John Kerry's 252.
As of this writing, Barack Obama is solidly ahead in all of the states Kerry won (252), and comfortably ahead in several "red" states won by Bush: (Nevada (5), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Ohio (20), Virginia (13); giving him a winning total of 311.
If the "red" states in which Obama is currently slightly ahead are added to the tally -- Missouri (11), North Carolina (15) and Florida (27) -- then the total, 364 Electoral College votes, will constitute a Obama landslide! Of course polls do, and are tightening as the election approaches. Although Obama's victory does not seem to be in doubt, his margin is.
Several factors catapulted Obama to the threshold of the US presidency. First, Obama is an excellent candidate. He is smart, articulate, young, and handsome. Good candidates (Reagan, Clinton) win; bad candidates (Dukakis, Gore, Kerry) lose. Dukakis did not respond to Bush Sr.'s Willie Horton ad; Gore chose Joe Lieberman, now McCain's number one supporter, for his VP; and Kerry remained silent as he was being swift-boated in 2004.
Obama defined himself as a post-racial candidate. He did not run as a black candidate; he ran as a candidate who happened to be black. When Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy surfaced, Obama tackled it head on and gave a brilliant speech on race.
Obama ran a disciplined campaign. He and his campaign were always on message. Every attack by Hillary and later McCain was responded to by Obama on the stump and through campaign ads. Even when the going was rough, as with Rev. Wright and Obama's "bitter" comment, there was no acrimony or finger-pointing within the campaign staff, no leaks to the press. Contrast that to recent McCain campaign insiders sniping at the "diva" and "whack job" Sarah Palin!
Obama opted out of public financing for his campaign, and raised half a billion dollars in small donations through the internet. This gave Obama a huge advantage both in the primaries and in the presidential campaign. Obama outspent Hillary and McCain 4 to 1 in TV advertising. Obama enlisted the services of Oscar winners to produce and air an excellent 30-minute infomercial on seven TV channels on October 29 that was viewed by 20 million. Featuring four families -- two white, one black, and one Hispanic -- Obama attempted to make America comfortable with him by showing that with a white mother and his Kansas roots, he was one of them. The infomercial was so well crafted that for the last three minutes it went live to Florida where Obama was speaking at a rally.
Obama supporters are young and internet savvy. They use You Tube, Facenook and MySpace to their advantage. McCain does not like to use a computer; he did not know how to use the internet. Obama ran a 21st century campaign; McCain ran a 20th century campaign.
Then there was luck. American politics moves in 30-year cycles. The Reagan revolution of 1980 is running out of steam. America is hungry for change. Obama campaign adopted "change" as its mantra.
Hillary, leading Obama by 30% in the polls, underestimated Obama in the primaries. Her campaign thought they would win the nomination by Super Tuesday, on February 5. When they did not and ran out of money, Obama won 12 primaries/caucuses in a row to steal the nomination.
Given a choice, America likes a younger president. McCain is 72, while Obama just turned 47. McCain took the lead for the first time in early September following the Republican Party national convention after incessantly attacking Obama as "not fit to be the commander-in-chief."
In mid-September Wall Street meltdown focused the nation's attention squarely on the sinking economy, McCain's Achilles Heel. While McCain lurched from one blunder to another, "suspending the campaign," and promising not to show up for the first presidential debate, Obama was a cool customer, seeking advice from economists before speaking. It was then that America made its choice as to who the better leader is in a crisis. Obama took the lead for good.
Forgetting the bitterness of the primaries, the Democrats united behind their candidate. Every Hillary Clinton supporter is now a surrogate for Obama. Hillary Clinton has been campaigning her heart out for Obama, as has Bill Clinton. On October 30, Obama and Bill Clinton appeared together at a huge campaign rally in Orlando, Florida and brought down the house. On October 31, Al Gore campaigned for Obama in Florida, no doubt eliciting some buyer's remorse for the way Florida robbed him of the presidency in 2000.
Not all Americans like Obama's ethnic heritage, his politics or his previous associations.But Americans know that Obama is the smartest and coolest guy under pressure. After witnessing the mess an "incurious" president has gotten America into in the last eight years, America is yearning for a smart president. At a time when the country is in such dire economic straits, American believe that only the smartest guy can get them out of the hole the previous president has dug for them. Instead of letting Bush hand over the shovel to McCain so that he can dig a deeper hole with the same Bush economic policies, Americans want to pass the baton to this new, "inexperienced" but smart guy. Even a group, "Racists for Obama," said that they will put aside their prejudice for a while and vote for Obama!
Obama's expected election victory will reap enormous rewards for America abroad. It will instantly restore America's prestige and moral authority worldwide. America will be the world leader in racial reconciliation. Obama's election will also put enormous pressure on western nations such as the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand to follow in America's footsteps and elect a non-white as their head of the government.
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