Will Obama seize the moment?
Barack Obama's election as the president of the United States has electrified the world. It's historic that an African-American (AA) will live as the master of the White House, which was built by African slaves but where AAs would rarely be invited until 60 years ago.
This marks spectacular progress in a society where AAs were sold until 143 years ago and couldn't even vote 40 years ago.
This tectonic shift in the world's most influential nation has kindled hope everywhere in the possibility of transformative, even revolutionary, change towards inclusion, equality and diversity.
Everybody wants "a piece of Obama," including former Republican Secretary of State Colin Powell, and one-time neo-conservative Francis Fukuyama. Even France's Right-wing President Nicolas Sarkozy is exuberant.
A striking exception to this are Indian policymakers, who view the victory with nervousness. Like the hopelessly US-dependent elites of Israel and Georgia, they wanted Senator John McCain to win. They see Mr. Obama as a threat. As argued below, they're totally wrong.
What's the true significance of Mr. Obama's victory? Domestically, it breaks the conservative stranglehold over US society. Crucial here was his grassroots mobilisation campaign based on the promise of healing social divides This couldn't have been achieved by John Kerry or Joseph Biden.
This gain stands magnified by the US financial meltdown and economic recession. These highlight the bankruptcy of Mr Bush's disastrous policies and remind Americans of the relevance of healthcare and social security entitlements, progressive taxation, and Roosevelt's egalitarian New Deal.
Mr. Obama's call to end "unforgiving capitalism" was wholly in keeping with this.
Globally, this is a fateful moment, when multiple crises have converged -- a huge economic crisis, discrediting of neo-liberal economics, decline of US hegemony, and climate change. These cast a shadow over the notion of development as market-led accumulation of material goods to which human needs are subordinated.
Domestically, Mr. Obama has a historic chance to launch a new New Deal, re-regulate the economy, and formulate bold healthcare, social security and public-works programs. He will come under pressure from the establishment, including his free-market advisers, not to break with neo-liberalism. This will perpetuate Casino Capitalism and human misery.
Yet, the logic of Mr. Obama's promises on social programs, taxation, and his $200-billion plan for roads, ports, bridges, etc, should help him discard neoliberalism. We must hope he succeeds.
Mr. Obama will probably adopt progressive energy and climate change policies. He isn't hostile to the Kyoto Protocol.
Mr. Obama is likely to outlaw torture and shut down Guantánamo Bay. However, whether he will dismantle intrusive surveillance remains unclear.
His economic agenda will greatly depend upon his cabinet appointments. The top candidates for the Treasury are former World Banker Lawrence Summers and New York Federal Reserve chairman Timothy Geithner. Neither is likely to break with neo-liberalism. The test of Mr. Obama's leadership will lie in overruling them.
His very first appointment, Rahm Emmanuel as the White House chief of staff, is a letdown. Mr Emanuel is a hard-driving Washington "insider," close to the controversial Chicago mayor Richard Daley. Sadly, Mr. Obama also wants to induct Republicans into his team.
On foreign policy and security issues, Mr. Obama promises a less arrogant and unilateralist US -- in contrast to Bush-McCain. He has promised to withdraw troops from Iraq over 16 months. This is a worthy step -- although one hopes the US won't maintain a substantial military presence in Iraq.
Mr. Obama will induct thousands of additional troops into Afghanistan to intensify the war. Unless this is done with a radically new approach, and under Pakistan's leadership, it could turn out a disaster.
His remarks favouring unilateral strikes in Pakistan against al-Qaeda-Taliban militants were a blunder. He must be persuaded to move away from that approach.
Mr. Obama's positions on Iran, Russia, and Son-of-Star-Wars-style ballistic missile defence can bring about a major change in geopolitics.
If he begins a dialogue with Iran, builds friendly relations with Russia, delays BMD deployment, and renews the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, while de-alerting nuclear weapons, he'll have made a major contribution to defusing rivalries.
Mr. Obama holds that unless the US and Russia greatly reduce their nuclear arsenals, they won't be able to persuade Iran and North Korea to forgo their nuclear programs. This is a big step forward.
How Mr. Obama acts globally will largely depend on whether he recognises that US power is set to decline. If he doesn't, his agenda will fall short of the necessary transformative content.
On the whole, Mr Obama's positions favour a more balanced and peaceful world, and deserve to be welcomed. But Indian policy-makers are cynical towards them. They view them through the narrow prism of India-Pakistan relations, his remarks on mediating on Kashmir and on outsourcing, and his intention to ratify the CTBT and negotiate a Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).
But Mr. Obama is unlikely to want to undermine the competitiveness of US industry by halting outsourcing. His campaign statements on Kashmir are unlikely to translate into policy, which will have to take into account India's reservations. As his transition team has clarified, he'll support a bilateral India-Pakistan dialogue to resolve Kashmir.
As for the CTBT, even Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee was prepared to sign it in 1999, after declaring a unilateral testing moratorium, based on a careful assessment that further testing isn't necessary. If India is truly committed to global nuclear disarmament, it must recognise that the CTBT and FMCT are indispensable.
It's unlikely that Obama will risk damaging Washington's relations with India by aggressively pushing agendas that New Delhi is uncomfortable with. It's a sign of Indian policymakers' diffidence that they think otherwise.
India can positively engage Mr. Obama by seeking his cooperation in an initiative for a reform of global governance, including a more democratic United Nations, restructuring of the World Bank, IMF and the World Trade Organisation, and through promoting an equitable international economic order and a cooperative security system.
This means jettisoning parochial, short-term preoccupations and thinking big. Can Indian policymakers do this?
Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist:
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