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Boosting power generation
Electricity is a must for development.
OVER the last three years I have used my column more than once to highlight the absence of an efficient and affordable power supply in our country. I have reiterated that this factor is essential for rapid, sustained economic growth and poverty reduction. In this context, my attention was drawn recently to an article entitled "Effective management in Power Sector and its implication for national security" by Commander Mahmudul Huq Choudhury (published in the NDC Journal, Volume 7 Number 1) and comments made by Tatiana Nenova, senior economist and co-author of a recent World Bank report on the power supply situation in Bangladesh. Both authors have underlined the close association between the availability of reliable, uninterrupted power supply, and reasonably priced electricity with industry, commerce and the attaining of socio-economic potential and decent living standards. It is also generally agreed that the country has not only inherited a weak power generation and distribution system but is also plagued by inefficient leadership, over-centralisation, corruption and greed. It has also been noted that the countrywide system is characterised by heavy system losses (theft) and poor revenue collection. Quite correctly, the World Bank feels that electricity shortages remain a critical barrier to growth and private investment and a source of major expense for productive sectors like-garments, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Bangladesh's per capita electricity generation is one of the lowest in the world, and official figures put household access to electricity at slightly over 44 percent (2005). Demand for power has always outstripped supply and generation through normal methods and has been unable to keep pace with requirement. The current net generating capacity is about 4120 MW as against an installed capacity of over 5000 MW and peak demands of up to 4832 MW. Interestingly, Nenova has also pointed out that heavy reliance on generators has meant that reported losses arising out of a poorly performing electricity grid are seriously understated. Private participation in the production of power has been encouraged by the government but has failed to really take off due to bitter recrimination, primarily on the tariff issue and problems related to planning policy, and institutional and operational levels. Adverse impacts due to this persistent shortage of power supply have resulted in "demonstrations, strikes, violence, low production, and in some cases closure of industries." In the era of globalisation, there are few issues that better demonstrate the confluence of politics and business than energy. From fuelling the economies of rich countries to driving economic development in poor ones, it has an effect on almost everything we do. Consequently, ensuring the safe supply and distribution of energy should be an important part of strategic state policy. In this regard, the best way forward in meeting the challenges confronting the energy infrastructure should be a constructive engagement between the private and the public sectors. Unfortunately, in Bangladesh, till now, political will has been lacking in charting out a meaningful perspective plan for such a partnership in the energy industry -- both through the use of fossil fuel (a clear and defined coal policy) and also alternative renewable sources. Our present caretaker government has failed in this regard. I have discussed the various facets of this exercise with academia, engineers and others involved (from the private sector) with both renewable energy and fossil fuel since being nominated as Chairman, Bangladesh Renewable Energy Society. It has been an interesting experience. They have all agreed on one point. A true transformation of the energy system, making electricity production carbon-free through nuclear, renewables, carbon capture and storage and sifting transport and temperature control towards electric power would require massive investment. They also pointed out that there was no clear sign that the Bangladesh government was really willing to take on the costs that such a transformation would involve. The current international financial crisis and lack of supply of new funds was also referred to in this regard. However, I am an optimist and believe that we can overcome obstacles. It would be pertinent here to state that we should try to learn from China. That country's astounding economic growth has been accompanied by spectacular additions to its electricity generation. It added an estimated 100,000 MW in 2006 alone. By the end of this year, 99 percent of its huge population will have access to electricity. China has managed to do this by moving towards nuclear power (six nuclear power stations are currently under construction) and other forms of renewable energy. It is now the world's leading producer of photovoltaic solar panels and also its largest exporter. Those involved in this industry have mentioned that China and Japan could have done more but are facing two constraints -- a global shortage of silicon -- the main component in photovoltaic technology -- and sufficient numbers of skilled contractors and technicians to ship and install the panels. Well, we continue to hear from our geologists that we are rich in silicon (the Cox's Bazar coastline). If we can confirm that we have the basic material, the next step should be manufacturing of the panels and acquiring necessary technical training for rapid deployment. Promoting this sector as a part of clean energy could be achieved through international assistance and by the Climate Fund being set up to tackle the effects of climate variability. As mentioned earlier in several of my articles, it is time that our political masters take decisive steps towards the production of nuclear power. It will be costly and might take more than six years to complete. The Three Mile Island accident in the USA in 1979 and Ukraine's Chernobyl disaster in 1986 had accorded pariah status to this industry. Nuclear plants are, however, now seen as a way for countries to achieve energy security as shortages of uranium fuel are deemed less of a risk than shortages of oil and gas. European countries as well as the US have started changing their stance in this regard. It has been reported that we are also thinking of having a nuclear facility that can produce 1000 MW of power. We meet the necessary international legal and safeguard requirements. There is now no time to lose, given the fact that our gas reserves are in a poor state and need extensive investment ($8 to 10 billion according to Dr. M. Tamim, Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser for Energy and Power), if the potential is to be fully extracted. We must move towards nuclear power generation, the sooner the better. This should be priority number one for the next political government. Using wind turbines as a source of renewable energy could also be examined, particularly in the coastal areas. However, the intermittent nature of wind power is a drawback, as it will require the supply infrastructure being equipped with specialised technology to monitor and manage it. Unfortunately we are terribly weak in this area. We need to sit down together -- all the stakeholders and the important political parties -- and agree on least common denominators regarding production, delivery and maintenance of grids. This is a crucial and serious bipartisan engagement that affects our national security. We must not fail in our efforts towards meeting the gap between demand and supply.
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